Cynefin Framework

Simple

In the simple context, the relationship between cause and effect is clear and straightforward. Therefore, simple challenges have simple solutions. An example of a simple context is the game Tic-Tac-Toe, where the facts are known, and if you understand the game, you know exactly what the next move should be. These contexts are characterized by stability and clear, predictable cause-and-effect relationships. The approach here is to sense, categorize, and respond using best practices documented in manuals or guidelines.

Complicated

For decades, most business challenges have been complicated. A complicated challenge is like a chess game: if you are an expert, you don’t know your opponent’s next move, but you know the possible moves and how to counter them. There are multiple possible solutions and causes. Experts are needed to analyze the situation and recommend the best course of action. Traditional hierarchical structures and classic project management have excelled in this context. The approach is to sense, analyze, and respond based on the expertise.

Complex

In a rapidly changing and complex world, we face challenges characterized by complexity. Complex situations are like a high-level soccer game, where you can’t predict the exact positions of the ball or players in the next minute. Many interdependent actors create numerous possible outcomes. There is no single correct answer, and cause and effect are not obvious. Complex challenges require a creative approach that is sensitive to changes. Work in short iterations, obtain feedback by observing results, and adapt accordingly. Waterfall models based on predictability will fail here. The solution resembles a flock of starlings evading a predator—exploring the situation, getting feedback, and continuously adjusting.

Chaotic

The chaotic context is the realm of the unknown. Perfect answers are not the priority here; swift, innovative action within existing possibilities is required. Analysis can occur later. This approach demands strong leadership. Typical examples of chaotic contexts include acute crises, such as natural disasters.

Disorder

At the center of the Cynefin Framework is the context of disorder. Here, it is unclear which of the other four contexts dominates. In this situation, it is advisable to break down the problem into smaller parts and apply the appropriate approach to each part. Most business strategies, product developments, and project management challenges oscillate between the complicated and complex contexts. Should we use traditional project management methods and strategic planning, or do we need entrepreneurial agility? The Cynefin Framework provides guidance and helps organizations identify the right approach for each situation. For more precise problem classification and decision-making support, the Stacey Matrix can be used, adding further dimensions to analyze uncertainty and control.